The Second Trump Administration: Opportunities and Challenges for United States-Southeast Asian Relations

This event will examine the implications of a second Trump administration for U.S.-Southeast Asian relations. In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s reelection, Southeast Asian states braced for a return to the transactional America First policy of his first administration. The United States promptly withdrew from global organizations and multilateral agreements such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the Paris Climate Agreement, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership while questioning the benefits of alliances like NATO and downgrading engagement with ASEAN. Washington also labeled China a peer competitor, launched a trade war, and adopted an Indo-Pacific policy that intensified pressure on Southeast Asian states to choose sides.

Given the first Trump administration’s coercive measures toward Southeast Asia, such as labeling Vietnam a currency manipulator, withdrawing GSP measures from Thailand, and threatening sanctions on Indonesia if it purchased Russian military equipment, Southeast Asian states expected the second Trump administration’s withdrawal from the WHO and Paris Agreement and its imposition of 10% tariffs on China. However, the breadth and depth of other measures that the Trump has adopted since his January 20 inauguration have sent shock waves through Southeast Asian capitals. The administration’s dismantling of USAID and freeze on virtually all foreign aid has threatened programs throughout the region that traditionally generated goodwill toward Washington. Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine, rapprochement with Putin, and threats of 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada have stunned observers.

If the United States is willing to defy its Western allies and adopt such a coercive policy toward Canada, the largest U.S. market and a NATO ally, what does that portend for its more distant Southeast Asian partners?  As China, Canada, and Mexico prepare to respond with retaliatory measures, what are the implications for the global trading order and its impact on Southeast Asia’s trade-dependent states? How do Southeast Asian states perceive Washington’s wholesale abandonment of the global order it has supported since WWII, and how will they respond? This conference will address these questions and analyze potential scenarios for the trajectory of U.S.-Southeast Asian relations under the second Trump administration.

This event is co-hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and New York Southeast Asian Network, and co-sponsored by Columbia Journalism School and China and the World Program.

For non-Columbia affiliates, registration is required to access the Morningside campus. After registering you will receive an email with a QR code that must be presented along with a government-issued ID (your name must match exactly the name registered for the event) at either the 116th Street & Broadway or 116th Street & Amsterdam gates for entry. Please register using an unique email address (one email address per registrant) by Mar. 26 at 4:00 pm for campus access.

Names will be submitted for QR codes 1-2 days prior to the event. Registrants will receive an email from CU Guest Access with the QR code before or on the day of the event.

Registration:

• To attend this event in-person, please register HERE.
• To attend this event online, please register HERE.

AGENDA:

Thursday, March 27

9:30-9:45        WELCOME REMARKS

• Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, Dorothy Borg Chair in the History of the United States and East Asia; Director, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
• Duy Linh Tu: Dean of Academic Affairs, Columbia School of Journalism
• Ann Marie Murphy: Professor, Seton Hall University, Adjunct Senior Research Scholar, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University

9:45-11:00       SETTING THE CONTEXT: GEOSTRATEGIC COMPETITION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

• U.S. Policy Toward Southeast Asia: The View from Washington

Derek Mitchell, Senior Advisor, CSIS and former Ambassador to Myanmar

• Prospects for US-China Relations Under Trump II: Implications for Southeast Asia

Thomas Christensen, James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations, Columbia University

• Prospects for US-Japan Relations under Trump II: Implications for Southeast Asia:

Ayumi Teraoka, Postdoctoral Fellow, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University

11:00-11:15     BREAK

11:15-12:45    MARITIME SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER TRUMP

• Prospects for US-Singapore Relations under Trump II

Joseph Chinyong Liow, Dean of College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University

• Prospects for US-Philippines Relations under Trump II

Gregory Poling, Director, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS

Walden Bello, Philippine academic, human rights activist and former congressman

• Prospects for US-Indonesian Relations under Trump II

Yohanes Sulaiman, Associate Professor, Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani

12:45-1:30      LUNCH

1:30-3:00        MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER TRUMP II

• Prospects for US-Thai Relations Under Trump II

Pongphisoot Busbarat, Director, Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University

• Prospects for US-Malaysian Relations Under Trump II

Elina Noor, Southeast Asia Program Director, Carnegie Council

• Prospects for US-Cambodian Relations Under Trump II

Sophal Ear, Associate Professor Thunderbird School of Management

• Prospects for US-Vietnamese Relations Under Trump II

Hong Hai Nguyen, Senior Lecturer, VinUniversity, Fulbright Scholar, American University

3:00-3:15        BREAK

3:15-4:30        REGIONAL ISSUES: IMPLICAITONS FOR U.S. SOUTHEAST ASIAN RELATIONS

• Trends in the South China Sea: Implications for the United States and Southeast Asia

Greg Poling, CSIS

• Technical and Digital Competition in Southeast Asia:  

Elina Noor, Southeast Asia Program Director, Carnegie Council

• Geoeconomic Competition: Southeast Asian Responses and Implications for

4:30-4:45        Concluding Remarks

• Ann Marie Murphy, Professor, Seton Hall University, Adjunct Senior Research Scholar, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University